Labour has a big problem
After two by-election victories last week, it should be riding high. Instead the Middle-East crisis poses a challenge for Starmer
On the same day Keir Starmer was celebrating two stunning by-election victories (more below), news came in of the loss of Oxford Council. Eight Labour councillors resigned the whip (left the party) over their leader’s stance on what is clearly Israel’s war crimes in Gaza.
What has this got to do with Starmer? Well after the Hamas attacks on Israel on the 7th of October, Starmer, a former human rights lawyer, gave Israel's ‘unequivocal’ support to defend itself. To the point that when Israel announced a total siege of Gaza (a small strip of land that houses over 2 million people), he refused to condemn it despite it being a clear violation of international law. His Shadow Foreign Minister, David Lammy, did the same, and so did The Shadow Attorney General Emily Thornberry, another human rights lawyer.
Around 20 councillors have resigned from the party, and the crisis is deepening. At least two more Labour-controlled councils could be flipped. One of them is Leicester.
The Muslim vote
The Muslim community, in particular, key to Labour’s success in around 12 seats in the country, are angered by what some have called aiding and abetting genocide. Until now, Starmer has refused to call for a ceasefire, even though over 5,000 people have been killed by Israeli shelling, including over 2,000 children.
The International Centre of Justice for Palestinians (ICJP), a UK-based legal centre, had issued the Labour Leader with a notice of intention to prosecute any UK politician for their complicity in war crimes in Gaza. The UN Secretary-General has called what is happening in Gaza a humanitarian crisis.
The ICJP letter emphasised that "under international criminal law… support provided to perpetrators of international crimes can be investigated and prosecuted by the International Criminal Court".
Why is he doing this?
Many suggest he wants to draw a clear divide between his leadership and Jeremy Corbyn, who was much more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and accused of presiding over an anti-Semitic party. But also, he does not want to be out of sync with the Americans, who have given Israel a green light.
By-elections
The other problem he has is that although he won Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections - with a huge swing to Labour - the turnout was very low. Many Conservative voters stayed at home, uninspired by Labour.
Look at Tamworth’s results:
With a 35.9 % turnout, Conservative voters are not turning out. Almost 20,000 Conservative voters didn’t turn out - Labour’s vote share only increased by around 1,000. The question is, what would these voters do in a general election? By-elections are known to attack smaller turnouts.