Global Politics News Update – Ukraine
Global Politics News Update – Ukraine
Analysis on the Ukraine crisis
Russia’s war against Ukraine does not seem to be going to plan for the great power. At the time of writing, Russia is attempting to encircle the country’s capital Kiev. With heavy losses in the first week, Russia has looked unprepared - not expecting Ukrainian opposition and has miscalculated the international response.
Here are some angles that you can integrate into a politics essay.
Hard Power
Context: Hard power can be summarised as using your economic and military might to coerce countries to ‘bend to your will’. We have seen hard power in action in many ways this past week.
Of course, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a sovereign country is an example. It calculated that it could get Ukraine to ‘behave’ through military intervention. Russia has form. It has recently used hard power in Syria, to destroy opposition to Assad and has of course been fighting a ‘grey zone’ war in the eastern Ukraine since 2014.
Analysis: But it is important to note that the United States and Europe have also used their hard power this past week. Apart from arming the Ukrainian government, there has been a dizzying array of economic and cultural sanctions levied against Russia. Governments around the world have taken coordinated action, using sanctions to target Russia’s banking system, state-controlled companies and powerful oligarchs.
These actions include:
Preventing Russia from the SWIFT banking system.
Banning Russia’s central bank from accessing some $640 billion it holds in foreign reserves (mostly in dollars, euros and sterling). This severely hampers Moscow’s ability to prop up its currency. The rouble has tumbled in recent days as a result.
The western alliance has gone after Russian oligarchs, blacklisting businesses – in an attempt to tighten the noose around the supporters of Putin.
Banning Russian airline carriers from European and US airspace and airports.
Major brands like Nike, Google and Apple have stopped trading in Russia entirely or partially.
Russian athletes have been banned from the Paralympics.
These measures are a coordinated campaign of economic and cultural means to isolate Russia and to change its behaviour. They are also designed to influence those around Putin.
NATO Expansion
A lot has been said about NATO expansion eastwards and how it may have contributed to Russia’s response. Realists like Mearsheimer have been saying for many years that incorporating Eastern European countries like Poland and Hungary and signalling Ukrainian accession was a big mistake.
In 1993 Mearsheimer wrote that it was an error to strip Ukraine of its nuclear weapons (Ukraine found it self with ex-Soviet nuclear warheads when the Cold War ended).
The International Criminal Court opens and investigation into Russian actions
The ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan opens an investigation into Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
Context: Russia is not a party to the ICC, so it does not have to cooperate or send anyone found guilty of war crimes to the court. But it may make life more difficult for Putin if he is put on trial or found guilty in abstentia. It will oblige an ICC country to arrest him and deport him to The Hague.
Analysis: The pressure from the west over Ukraine is intense. The ICC has failed to open investigations into indiscriminate Israeli shelling of Gaza or Russia’s carpet bombing of Syrian cities including east Aleppo that killed over 30,000 civilians. Some are arguing that the ICC decision making is politicised and subject to influence from western powers.
At the time, the international community deserted the plight of the Syrians. Not a single investigation into the horrific carpet bombing has taken place, much of which happened during Barack Obama’s presidency.
UN General Assembly Vote
Context
A non-binding General Assembly vote condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine passed yesterday
With:
141 in favour
5 against
35 abstentions
China abstained while Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Russia and Syria voted against.
Analysis
China’s abstention is very significant. It is not willing to support Russia over its actions. China is also keenly observing the international response. Any future moves to capture Taiwan may solicit similar international isolation. The ‘west’, surprisingly has remained unified.
Russian Gas
But even after all is said and done. Every day EU countries are purchasing €600 million Euros of natural gas from Russia. That’s every day.
